News from Taiwan’s supply chain said that the three major memories of DRAM, NAND Flash and NOR Flash have been out of stock until next year, and many customers have rushed for the goods and have already subscribed all the production capacity of Nanya, Macronix and Winbond. The manufacturer pointed out that the three major memories have a wide range of applications. In particular, NOR Flash is almost a key component for storing program codes in various electronic products. Although the unit price is much lower than that of DRAM and NAND Flash, it will not work without it. For customers who have not signed a long-term contract, the memory supply will be Shortages have impacted the timeliness of product launches or shipments.
A few days ago, due to the demand for NOR-Flash driven by the new demand for smart phone AMOLED, touch IC and driver IC integration single chip, and the global monthly production of NOR-Flash is only about 88,000 pieces, it is highly customized and production capacity is not easy to expand. Under the influence of DRAMeXchange, a recent research report by TrendForce, a global market research and research organization, pointed out that the demand for NOR-Flash continues to be in short supply, and the price of NOR-Flash is expected to rise by 20% in the third quarter of 2017. However, after this situation, under the current NOR-Flash market price destroyer Gigadevice (Gigadevice) to strengthen the production of film, I am afraid that will be changed.
According to a recent study by DRAMeXchange, observing the global NOR-Flash supply situation, the two major global suppliers, Cypress and Mircon, are determined to gradually fade out of the NOR-Flash market on the one hand. , Cypress Semiconductor turned to focus on the automotive and industrial regulations market. In addition, Micron will also focus on DRAM production and gradually launch NOR-Flash market operations, which has led to a shortage of supply in the market since the second half of 2016. As a result, product prices have been rising steadily, which has further boosted the market share of Macronix, Winbond, and Zhaoyi Innovation.
Based on the current revenue as the basis for calculation of market share, Cypress has a market share of 25%, ranking first, Macron has a market share of 24%, ranking second, and Micron has a market share of 18%, ranking third. , And then Winbond and Zhaoyi Innovation. However, with Cypress and Micron gradually withdrawing from the NOR-Flash market, the other three manufacturers began to attack the market.
However, at the beginning, when the Chinese government subsidized funds for Wuhan Xinxin to provide production capacity, Zhaoyi Innovation had a small number of customers at that time, and it was unable to take advantage of its production capacity. Today, Zhaoyi Innovation has customers, but Wuhan Xinxin has its own operational considerations, that is, the monthly production capacity of its 12-inch factory is 30,000 pieces, one third is used for logic IC foundry, and one third is In the case of Ercai's NOR-Flash production, Wuhan Xinxin must serve Zhaoyi Innovation as well as other manufacturers. As a result, Zhaoyi's production capacity has been limited, and it has been unable to further make up for the lack of stock in the market, making the NOR-Flash market facing a shortage of demand.
However, it is understood that Zhaoyi Innovation’s current filming situation has begun to be adjusted, that is, by increasing filming and production capacity on SMIC and Huali Micro to meet market demand. The source pointed out that due to SMIC's current low capacity utilization rate, Zhaoyi Innovation has been producing films at SMIC since June. And the quantity has increased from 2,000 pieces per month at the beginning to the current 8,000 pieces, which has grown four times the quantity, and the quantity is considerable. In addition, the cooperation between Zhaoyi Innovation and Hualiwei has also officially started filming.
Moreover, when the overall estimated production capacity is increased to 55,000 pieces, Winbond's Zhongke Factory will be fully loaded. As Winbond emphasized that the newly added capacity will produce all NOR-Flash and part of NANDFlash, coupled with Zhaoyi’s expansion of production, will the price of NOR-Flash continue to grow in the future? There are big variables happening.
A few days ago, Powerchip chairman Huang Chongren announced that he would restart the NOR-Flash production plan because he was optimistic about the market development of NOR-Flash. According to market participants, it seems that wafers have already begun to be produced in this area. However, because it is different from the 90-nanometer process used by PSC in the past, the current 65-nanometer process is to be used. Under many different conditions in process technology, this batch of wafers put into production by Jinghao Branch is believed to be only a general trial production part, and there may be some time before the time of real mass production. How this will affect the future market remains to be observed.
In addition, Macronix general manager Lu Zhiyuan Lu Zhiyuan expects that the NOR-Flash market will continue to be in short supply this year. Due to the continued price rise, the distribution model is currently adopted. Process products above 75 nanometers account for about 50% of the revenue of the NOR product line in the second quarter, which is strong. Demand mainly comes from each application field and product capacity; Macronix’s global market share of NOR-Flash has reached 26% in the first quarter of this year, ranking first in the world. It is estimated that the market share will challenge 30% this year; in addition, SLCNAND Flash is also in short supply this year, and it also adopts a distribution model. In response to strong client demand, Macronix has launched a high-end production capacity expansion plan. It is estimated that the new production capacity will increase by 4,800 pieces per month. The output is expected to be produced by the end of this year. All products will be produced in a 12-inch factory, while low-density products will be produced in an 8-inch factory. 20170822-FLAS-12, TrendForce, IC Insight and other research institutions have recently issued reports that the three major memory devices have set a record for the most shortage and the longest rise in history this year. At the same time, the lack of stock is unprecedented. As Apple’s new mobile phones are about to go on sale, the three major memories are given priority to supply to Apple, and the non-Apple camp is also actively stocking up. Manufacturers expect that the shortage of the three major memories in the second half of the year will be more serious than in the first half of the year.
According to industry analysis, DRAM and NAND/NOR Flash are all lacking. Taiwanese manufacturers’ production capacity of Nanya, Winbond, and Macronix has all been sold out by the end of the year. The three manufacturers are actively removing bottlenecks and increasing production. Out, grab the short-stock business opportunity.
Nanya Technology currently has two 12-inch plants in Linkou, among which 90% of the 30-nanometer process products of the 3A plant are developed and designed on the basis of Micron technology; the brand-new 3An plant, after introducing the 20-nanometer process this year, obtained it in May According to customer verification, the mass production was in advance in the second quarter of this year, and the current yield rate is quite good. It is scheduled to reach 30,000 films in a single month by the end of this year.
Winbond’s current monthly production capacity is about 43,000 to 44,000. It is expected to increase to 48,000 by the end of the year. It is hoped that it will increase to 52,000 to 53,000 after the middle of next year. Fully loaded. Winbond emphasized that the newly added capacity will produce all NOR Flash and some NAND Flash, and hopes that the output of Flash will be similar to that of DRAM in the future. (Source: Technews, Economic Daily)